There’s a version of this article where I start with the standings and work down the table methodically. This isn’t that version. Start instead with the fact that Arsenal haven’t won the league since 2004 — pre-iPhone, pre-YouTube, pre-half of their current squad being born — and that they’re now two points clear with ten days left and still somehow not fully in control of their own fate.
Two points. City on 77. Arsenal on 79. Two games remaining for both, except City have three because the FA Cup Final against Chelsea is sandwiched into this week at Wembley.
What the last week actually looked like
Sunday at West Ham: Arsenal won 1-0 in a game they didn’t fully control. Trossard got the goal from an Odegaard cutback. Raya’s late save from Fernandes — 87th minute, close range, one of those stops that actually wins matches rather than just keeps them level — was arguably more important. VAR disallowed Wilson’s stoppage-time header for a foul on the keeper. West Ham’s bench erupted. Arsenal got on the coach with three points and probably breathed properly somewhere around junction 12 on the M25.
Wednesday: City beat Crystal Palace 3-0. Haaland scored. The gap that peaked at five points a few weeks back is two now, and that’s where the premier league standings sit going into this final stretch.
Arsenal’s remaining premier league schedule is, in theory, kind. Burnley at home Saturday — relegated, finished, playing out the calendar — and Crystal Palace away on May 24, the final day. That Crystal Palace fixture has a detail worth keeping in mind: Glasner’s side have a Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano on May 27. Three days after the Arsenal game. He’ll be managing legs. He’d be making a serious error if he wasn’t.
City’s run-in is more complicated regardless of what Guardiola says about rotation. FA Cup Final Saturday, then Bournemouth away Tuesday — and Bournemouth have lost once in 2026, so “away at Bournemouth” isn’t as simple as it might look — then Aston Villa at home on the final day. Villa beat City 1-0 earlier in the season. They need points themselves to secure European football. That fixture is genuinely tricky.
The maths Arsenal fans keep thinking about at 2am
The tiebreaker situation, since it matters and Arsenal fans think about it constantly: level on points goes to goal difference first. City plus 43, Arsenal plus 42 — City win. Level on GD goes to goals scored. City 75, Arsenal 68 — City win. Level on all of that somehow goes to head-to-head record from this season. City took four points from their two meetings with Arsenal — City win. Meaning in the very worst case, a season that finishes level on points would give City the title on head-to-head despite Arsenal having led for months.
None of that matters if Arsenal win their two games. And they probably will. But that’s why the anxiety doesn’t fully go away even with a two-point lead.
Below the top two — also not settled
Elsewhere, because the premier league standings don’t stop at second place: Man United confirmed third on 65 points last week. Champions League sorted. Below them, Liverpool and Aston Villa both have 59 points and play each other tonight at Villa Park — a direct fight for fourth place, or more accurately for the last guaranteed Champions League spot. One of these clubs will leave tonight’s game feeling significantly better about their chances. A draw suits nobody.
Sixth is Bournemouth on 55, and they’ve been genuinely impressive this season in a way that hasn’t received the attention it deserves. Andoni Iraola has built something at the Vitality — one league loss in 2026, a win over Arsenal back in the autumn, consistent performances against clubs with much bigger budgets. Fans tracking dbbet or similar platforms throughout the season will have noticed how consistently Bournemouth outperform expectations. European football next year feels like a deserved outcome. Brighton are seventh on 53, Brentford eighth on 51, Chelsea ninth on 49 — the Conference and Europa League places will be settled across the final two rounds of the premier league schedule, and it’s genuinely close between several clubs.
At the bottom: almost resolved, not quite
The bottom three: Wolves and Burnley are already down and confirmed. They play each other at some point in the remaining fixtures, which is one of those scheduling coincidences that feels like a bit of dark poetry. Third relegation spot is West Ham or Tottenham. West Ham in 18th on 36 points with GD minus 20, Spurs 17th on 38. The Wilson header VAR disallowed against Arsenal on Sunday tells you everything about West Ham’s season — a goal in the 93rd minute that would’ve changed their situation, taken away in thirty seconds of review. Their run-in is difficult. Nuno’s job is almost certainly attached to survival.
Spurs have been frustratingly inconsistent all year. Never quite bad enough to feel certain they’d go, never good enough to feel safe. Both clubs have two games left. One of them is going to the Championship, and the smart money is currently on West Ham, though “smart money on West Ham going down” is a phrase that would have been unthinkable three years ago given where that club thought it was heading.
Villa and Liverpool tonight, by the way, is also relevant to Arsenal’s title race in a sideways sense. If Villa win and move above Liverpool, they’ll go into the final day at City needing a result. If Liverpool win and go four points clear of Villa, the final-day motivation changes. The knock-on effects of the premier league schedule at this stage run in every direction.
How it probably ends — and the version where it doesn’t
Back to Arsenal, who are where this starts and where it ends. If they beat Burnley Saturday and then hold on at Palace on the 24th — against a Glasner lineup protecting legs for a European final — the 22-year wait is done. First title since the Invincibles. First since a generation of their own supporters were children. Arteta has been close three times in a row. Close enough each time to hurt.
City can still catch them. Needs Arsenal to slip, needs City to win three games in eight days including a cup final, needs the goal difference math to stay in City’s favor. It’s the sequence that requires several things to go right simultaneously. Possible. Guardiola’s teams have done it before — the 2022 final day comeback against Aston Villa is the one people cite, coming from behind to deny Liverpool on goal difference when it looked finished.
But you’d rather have Arsenal’s schedule than City’s. Two games. One opponent already relegated. One opponent with a European final in 72 hours. Ten days.
May 24. Whatever happens, it happens then.
Something worth remembering about how City operate in situations like this: they don’t announce themselves. They just keep winning until the maths is done. Haaland has 31 league goals this season. Guardiola has five Premier League titles at this club. The idea that Arsenal can simply expect City to drop points in the final week because it would be narratively convenient has been proven wrong enough times that nobody should count on it.
But the fixtures are what they are. Arsenal’s remaining premier league schedule is easier. Palace are protecting legs for Europe. Burnley have nothing to play for. City have a cup final, a tricky away trip, and a Villa side that already beat them once this season. Pick which set of games you’d rather have from a management perspective and the answer isn’t complicated.
May 24 resolves everything. Until then — uncomfortable, close, exactly the kind of finish this kind of season deserves.
